There's been a lot of reporting on the recent set of Microsoft memos indicating that the company is refocusing (again!) on Web services. It would seem at some level that they understand that the Web is becoming the platform of choice for software developers. (Ironically, this is largely because they spent the better part of a decade making it almost impossible for ISVs to make any money on desktop applications.) But now they're deciding that they want a piece of this whole "Web" thing in a bad way.
So they're floating the idea of hosting all of their applications and making them available for rent. How will all this hold up in reality?
First, they are clearly on the right track. Most software will be a service, period. The initial wave of Hotmails and eBays led to the second wave of Flickrs and Bloggers, along with the developer-focused Google/Amazon/Flickr APIs. After all, if you don't have to put your users through the DLL hell that is desktop software, why would you? The Internet has even warped user expectations regarding desktop software: people complain that iTunes doesn't auto-update itself, instead requiring a new install. So Microsoft is belatedly getting there.
The problem is that they don't understand all the reasons why developers are moving to the Internet as a platform. Some of the most common:
- I can ship my software every day.
- I can use whatever technologies I want on the back-end.
- It's free.
Microsoft is bad at all three of these areas. It's hard to make a case for Visual Studio at $200 when Ruby on Rails is free and arguably better for my particular job. Microsoft's ecosystem is hostile to open source, one of the best accelerants for software teams. And Microsoft has grown lethargic and is utterly incapable of shipping product quickly. At least Ray Ozzie understands the need to be nimble:
"Developers needing tools and libraries to do their work just search
the Internet, download, develop and integrate, deploy, refine," Ozzie
wrote.
"Speed, simplicity and loose coupling are paramount."
So what does this mean for Microsoft's Web services initiative? Let's call it MS .NET 3.0 to indicate that they've supposedly gotten the religion before, but that they still haven't shipped a major update to their browser in a year or so. .NET 3.0 will likely go the following route: they'll take it really seriously and put together a 'kill team' to make it happen. The Kill Team will find no clear enemy. The Kill Team will realize that to make the initiative successful, they have to endanger the Windows/Office licensing models. And then it's up to Ballmer & Gates: are they willing to bet the company again? Regardless of the details or proximate causes, that decision point is coming. Who knows whether they will succeed?
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